Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -35.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +42 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UK -24.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -25.1 (+16.9) | 151.3 (-17.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -22.8 (+19.2) | 148.3 (-14.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -25.3 (+16.7) | 150.5 (-16.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -25.3 (+16.7) | 150.2 (-16.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#18) | -3.6 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#121) | -1.85 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#113) | -2.54 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#94) | 0.392 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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