Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +54 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -32.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -27.1 (+26.9) | 156.5 (+19.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -24.9 (+29.1) | 150.2 (+25.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -32.9 (+21.1) | 151.2 (+24.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -32.9 (+21.1) | 152.6 (+23.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#78) | -19.1 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#118) | -1.41 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#135) | -2.26 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#138) | 0.421 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 60.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 54.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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