Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -425 APSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +9 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -10.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -8.5 (+0.5) | 144.1 (+14.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TLSA -8.1 (+0.9) | 139.4 (+19.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TLSA -9.5 (-0.5) | 138.7 (+20.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -9.0 (+0.0) | 137.9 (+21.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#55) | 4.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#15) | 1.10 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.23 (#5) | 1.84 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#20) | 0.552 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 36.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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