Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | SLU -5000 PFW +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +31 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -25.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -18.0 (+13.0) | 152.9 (-1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -20.9 (+10.1) | 154.0 (-3.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -25.4 (+5.6) | 156.4 (-5.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -24.4 (+6.6) | 154.0 (-3.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 19-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#41) | -7.4 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#97) | -2.15 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#91) | -3.39 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#147) | 0.388 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.8% | 63.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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