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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
38–17 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
55 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.9 | 142.4 | 78% | 54–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.2 | 151.2 | 13% | 83–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.0 | 151.5 | 88% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 138.3 | 86% | 74–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.2 | 149.5 | 87% | 70–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 137.2 | 56% | 67–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 138.7 | 85% | 58–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 152.8 | 36% | 89–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 168.3 | 68% | 114–102 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 144.3 | 50% | 76–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 136.4 | 72% | 51–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 151.0 | 75% | 70–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 145.6 | 73% | 68–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 148.9 | 26% | 92–101 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 142.1 | 76% | 48–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 148.0 | 48% | 89–93 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 149.0 | 85% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 137.7 | 44% | 71–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 160.1 | 71% | 76–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 133.2 | 54% | 61–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 137.9 | 77% | 65–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.4 | 58% | 70–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 148.5 | 51% | 82–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 140.8 | 81% | 81–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 160.7 | 44% | 103–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 156.9 | 84% | 67–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 144.6 | 59% | 69–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 152.5 | 82% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 149.5 | 48% | 90–87 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.1 | 134.2 | 53% | 65–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 136.4 | 42% | 67–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 142.6 | 58% | 78–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-15.5 | 146.6 | 13% | 93–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 142.7 | 17% | 73–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.0 | 144.2 | 91% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 136.1 | 40% | 70–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 134.4 | 86% | 68–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 131.8 | 56% | 63–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 137.1 | 62% | 64–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 146.8 | 41% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 137.9 | 60% | 63–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 144.6 | 77% | 93–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 132.8 | 19% | 68–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 121.3 | 42% | 52–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.1 | 147.9 | 85% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 149.8 | 78% | 63–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 149.8 | 63% | 89–87 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 150.0 | 38% | 78–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 155.2 | 57% | 85–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.0 | 149.4 | 88% | 67–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 158.4 | 79% | 80–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 154.6 | 86% | 67–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 149.0 | 79% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 138.9 | 66% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 157.2 | 82% | 84–87 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.