Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–10 on winners spread MAE 9.6 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
McNeese @ Michigan +21.6 154.4 90% 71–112 ✓
Kent State @ Purdue +20.2 156.8 91% 60–101 ✓
Cornell @ Michigan State +19.7 157.5 90% 97–114 ✓
New Haven @ Vanderbilt +25.0 142.0 91% 53–96 ✓
Long Island University @ Georgia +22.8 166.3 91% 74–89 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State +8.4 159.1 80% 81–84 ✓
Belmont @ Indiana State -9.4 150.9 18% 80–81 ✗
Delaware State @ Rutgers +14.7 136.0 87% 50–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield +4.3 139.2 71% 70–66 ✗
Lipscomb @ Cincinnati +5.6 141.0 68% 62–89 ✓
Oakland @ Wright State +2.9 152.0 63% 73–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +3.5 147.2 69% 79–77 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Cleveland State +1.0 160.2 48% 86–99 ✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's -8.0 148.6 27% 59–66 ✗
Manhattan @ Rider -1.7 137.0 41% 74–71 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T -4.9 138.7 34% 87–78 ✓
Drexel @ Charleston +7.3 143.1 79% 63–72 ✓
Campbell @ Hofstra +12.4 146.2 88% 72–86 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hampton +1.0 138.8 57% 59–62 ✓
Northeastern @ Elon +5.7 153.8 75% 91–103 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State -6.1 137.3 31% 67–78 ✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi State +12.9 150.9 88% 56–94 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State +0.8 141.0 54% 76–61 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M -7.6 143.4 23% 75–48 ✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +1.6 125.5 57% 63–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ Iowa State +25.9 148.5 91% 61–89 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Houston +19.4 136.9 90% 60–69 ✓
Yale @ Alabama +13.9 166.2 86% 78–102 ✓
James Madison @ Arkansas +21.9 158.3 91% 74–103 ✓
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +12.2 128.3 86% 48–58 ✓
Evansville @ Bradley +12.6 142.5 88% 68–76 ✓
Alcorn State @ Ole Miss +21.9 144.0 91% 43–79 ✓
Southern Miss @ LSU +16.8 152.3 88% 62–90 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M +21.0 162.0 91% 82–111 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Oklahoma +24.9 149.3 91% 69–93 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Milwaukee +1.4 152.1 57% 55–77 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Oklahoma State +18.6 156.7 91% 77–103 ✓
Jackson State @ TCU +24.0 140.8 91% 64–115 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +9.4 140.6 82% 66–73 ✓
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +2.0 133.2 64% 69–63 ✗
New Orleans @ UT Rio Grande Valley +7.4 145.1 81% 85–69 ✗
Nicholls @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.8 135.2 68% 76–71 ✗
South Dakota State @ Arizona +24.2 153.2 91% 71–99 ✓
Illinois State @ Drake -1.0 142.8 43% 73–56 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Minnesota +19.8 135.9 91% 43–60 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech +10.8 147.8 87% 66–80 ✓
Queens University @ Auburn +18.4 166.6 89% 65–106 ✓
Utah @ Washington +14.6 151.7 87% 65–74 ✓
Vermont @ Princeton -1.8 133.5 38% 69–75 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word +8.7 140.0 80% 70–79 ✓
Ohio @ Central Michigan -5.1 145.7 28% 80–64 ✓
Wyoming @ Air Force -13.4 137.2 15% 68–56 ✓
Howard @ Northwestern +16.6 140.4 89% 60–80 ✓
UAlbany @ South Carolina +19.1 144.9 90% 67–96 ✓
East Tennessee State @ The Citadel -12.5 139.0 15% 74–49 ✓
Western Michigan @ Toledo +8.9 153.1 82% 79–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.