Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -9000 SDST +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +28 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -27.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -23.4 (+4.6) | 149.3 (+20.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -24.2 (+3.8) | 153.2 (+16.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -26.7 (+1.3) | 153.4 (+16.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -27.4 (+0.6) | 152.1 (+17.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-1 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#5) | 0.7 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.85 (#1) | -0.60 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.61 (#2) | -0.45 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#4) | 0.460 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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