Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1450 YALE +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +24 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -13.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.9 (+12.1) | 163.8 (+16.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.9 (+10.1) | 166.2 (+13.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -14.3 (+9.7) | 166.5 (+13.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -16.8 (+7.2) | 165.4 (+14.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 18.6 (#13) | 9.2 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#14) | 2.48 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.00 (#14) | 2.84 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#15) | 0.609 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 50.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 44.0% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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