Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -8000 KENT +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +41 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -23.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -17.9 (+23.1) | 157.0 (+4.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -20.2 (+20.8) | 156.8 (+4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -23.0 (+18.0) | 155.1 (+5.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -23.9 (+17.1) | 154.9 (+6.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 82.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#8) | 2.0 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.43 (#8) | 0.88 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.77 (#8) | 0.84 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.658 (#11) | 0.554 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | KENT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 35.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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