Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -8000 QUC +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +41 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -19.4 (+21.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -19.5 (+21.5) | 159.5 (+11.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -18.4 (+22.6) | 166.6 (+4.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -20.3 (+20.7) | 165.5 (+5.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -19.9 (+21.1) | 163.9 (+7.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#44) | -3.5 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#35) | -1.09 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#22) | -1.42 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#32) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | QUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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