Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | LSU -3600 USM +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +28 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -18.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -17.4 (+10.6) | 152.8 (-0.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | LSU -19.2 (+8.8) | 151.7 (+0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | LSU -16.8 (+11.2) | 152.3 (-0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -17.4 (+10.6) | 151.8 (+0.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#37) | -0.6 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#22) | -0.27 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#25) | -0.15 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#39) | 0.494 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 36.5% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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