Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NU -3200 HOW +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NU -19.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -19.8 (+0.2) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -16.6 (+3.4) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -17.4 (+2.6) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -19.0 (+1.0) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#66) | -6.1 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#128) | -0.57 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#123) | -1.26 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.480 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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