Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SC -3200 UALB +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +29 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SC -19.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -18.1 (+10.9) | 146.3 (+16.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -19.1 (+9.9) | 144.9 (+18.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -19.9 (+9.1) | 146.1 (+16.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -20.4 (+8.6) | 145.8 (+17.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-8 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#99) | -9.6 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#156) | -1.96 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#145) | -2.15 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#210) | 0.443 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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