Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -8000 MTSU +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -19.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -16.8 (-7.8) | 136.6 (-7.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -19.4 (-10.4) | 136.9 (-7.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -20.0 (-11.0) | 137.5 (-8.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -19.2 (-10.2) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#16) | 2.5 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#17) | 0.89 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.80 (#15) | 0.99 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#31) | 0.595 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.