Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Southland Conference · The Field House · December 30, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -4.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money ETAM +185 / SFA -225
Model Predictions
Spread Total ETAM win
Actual SFA +27 123 Lost
Massey SFA -8.7 (-18.3)
Massey Totals 150.2 (-27.2)
Bradley-Terry 32%
Weighted B-T 13%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -7.4 (-19.6) 146.0 (-23.0) 32%
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -7.6 (-19.4) 143.4 (-20.4) 23%
Baseline ML SFA -7.5 (-19.5) 143.1 (-20.1) 23%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -8.3 (-18.7) 143.0 (-20.0) 23%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 10, 2026 SFA 7470 ETAM
Feb 18, 2025 SFA 7674 ETAM
Jan 28, 2025 SFA 7972 ETAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ETAM SFA
Overall 11-21 28-6
Conference 6-16 20-2
Home 6-8 15-1
Away 4-13 12-4
Neutral 1-0 1-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L4 L2
Avg Pts For 67.1 74.9
Avg Pts Against 76.0 66.7
Massey -7.2 (#281) 5.6 (#101)
Bradley-Terry -0.20 (#190) 1.21 (#90)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.78 (#224) 1.82 (#83)
RPI 0.526 (#124) 0.534 (#108)
Shooting & Four Factors ETAM SFA
FG% 41.7% 45.4%
3PT% 31.9% 37.6%
REB / G 31.2 36.7
OREB / G 8.7 11.7
AST / TO 0.93 1.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.0% 52.9%
TOV% 20.9% 14.6%
ORB% 24.1% 32.3%
FT Rate 23.7% 17.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 57.3% 44.8%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 17.0%
DRB% 68.8% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 30.8%

Game Analysis

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