Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ETAM +185 SFA -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +27 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -8.7 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -7.4 (-19.6) | 146.0 (-23.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -7.6 (-19.4) | 143.4 (-20.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -7.5 (-19.5) | 143.1 (-20.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -8.3 (-18.7) | 143.0 (-20.0) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | SFA 74 – 70 ETAM |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SFA 76 – 74 ETAM |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SFA 79 – 72 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 6-16 | 20-2 |
| Home | 6-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-13 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#281) | 5.6 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#190) | 1.21 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#224) | 1.82 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#124) | 0.534 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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