Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ETAM +195 SFA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -3.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -4.4 (+2.4) | 133.8 (+16.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -3.3 (+1.3) | 132.5 (+17.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -3.3 (+1.3) | 132.9 (+17.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -3.6 (+1.6) | 134.3 (+15.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | SFA 74 – 70 ETAM |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SFA 75 – 48 ETAM |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SFA 79 – 72 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 4-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 1-16 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#330) | -4.5 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#344) | -0.88 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#343) | -1.00 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#343) | 0.464 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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