And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
Southland Conference · William R. Johnson Coliseum · January 28, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -9.5 Away covered
O/U 129.5 Over
Money SFA -600 / ETAM +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual SFA +7 151 Won
Massey SFA -9.2 (-2.2)
Massey Totals 123.9 (+27.1)
Bradley-Terry 82%
Weighted B-T 93%
Efficiency Plus ML SFA -8.2 (-1.2) 131.9 (+19.1) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML SFA -6.2 (+0.8) 129.1 (+21.9) 71%
Baseline ML SFA -6.6 (+0.4) 126.3 (+24.7) 69%
Baseline Plus ML SFA -6.1 (+0.9) 126.9 (+24.1) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 10, 2026 SFA 7470 ETAM
Dec 30, 2025 SFA 7548 ETAM
Feb 18, 2025 SFA 7674 ETAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA ETAM
Overall 14-17 5-26
Conference 7-13 3-17
Home 8-8 4-10
Away 6-9 1-16
Neutral 0-0 0-0
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L4 W1
Avg Pts For 64.7 64.4
Avg Pts Against 69.4 74.9
Massey -5.8 (#256) -11.7 (#335)
Bradley-Terry -1.64 (#312) -2.55 (#345)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.80 (#291) -3.66 (#353)
RPI 0.437 (#281) 0.386 (#343)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA ETAM
FG% 40.5% 41.2%
3PT% 25.1% 29.4%
REB / G 36.5 31.6
OREB / G 12.9 10.3
AST / TO 0.65 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.0% 48.3%
TOV% 25.2% 23.7%
ORB% 36.0% 28.9%
FT Rate 22.3% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.8% 55.3%
Opp TOV% 21.2% 19.9%
DRB% 66.6% 67.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 27.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.