Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -600 ETAM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.2 (-1.2) | 131.9 (+19.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -6.2 (+0.8) | 129.1 (+21.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.6 (+0.4) | 126.3 (+24.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.1 (+0.9) | 126.9 (+24.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | SFA 74 – 70 ETAM |
| Dec 30, 2025 | SFA 75 – 48 ETAM |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SFA 76 – 74 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 8-8 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#256) | -11.7 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#312) | -2.55 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#291) | -3.66 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#281) | 0.386 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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