Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -2400 ETAM +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -18.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -14.9 (-10.9) | 142.8 (+1.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -16.0 (-12.0) | 140.0 (+4.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -17.0 (-13.0) | 140.9 (+3.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -17.0 (-13.0) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | SFA 75 – 48 ETAM |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SFA 76 – 74 ETAM |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SFA 79 – 72 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 6-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 12-4 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#88) | -8.3 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#67) | -1.19 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#67) | -1.54 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#81) | 0.463 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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