Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -35.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +28 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -34.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -26.4 (+1.6) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -25.9 (+2.1) | 148.5 (+1.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -33.1 (-5.1) | 147.2 (+2.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -32.4 (-4.4) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 24.6 (#4) | -5.4 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.41 (#2) | -1.93 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.84 (#1) | -2.36 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#23) | 0.396 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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