Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -2100 ALST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +38 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -14.4 (+23.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -15.5 (+22.5) | 153.4 (-3.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -12.9 (+25.1) | 150.9 (-0.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -12.7 (+25.3) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -11.9 (+26.1) | 150.9 (-0.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 5-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#121) | -6.8 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#99) | -1.27 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#107) | -1.81 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#82) | 0.454 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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