Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -6500 COR +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +17 | 211 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -21.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+48.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -20.3 (-3.3) | 153.3 (+57.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -19.7 (-2.7) | 157.5 (+53.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -20.9 (-3.9) | 151.9 (+59.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -20.2 (-3.2) | 155.8 (+55.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 85.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 84.6 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#17) | 0.9 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#11) | -0.06 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.08 (#10) | -0.24 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#6) | 0.514 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 59.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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