Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -39.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +43 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -37.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -24.6 (+18.4) | 140.3 (+8.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -25.0 (+18.0) | 142.0 (+7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -31.3 (+11.7) | 139.3 (+9.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -31.7 (+11.3) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 22.3 (#6) | -11.4 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.19 (#4) | -1.75 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.40 (#4) | -2.55 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#7) | 0.453 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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