And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–11 on winners spread MAE 8.9 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Longwood @ High Point +9.0 152.6 82% 72–83 ✓
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +3.1 135.6 63% 74–79 ✓
Wagner @ Le Moyne +1.0 131.9 56% 68–72 ✓
Chicago State @ Fairleigh Dickinson +8.2 142.1 77% 49–91 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Central Connecticut +12.6 134.7 86% 63–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +9.6 132.9 85% 59–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +4.2 145.1 69% 46–58 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia State +3.9 145.6 68% 75–97 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -2.8 143.6 39% 77–72 ✓
App State @ Coastal Carolina -9.0 127.5 19% 64–46 ✓
Charleston @ UNC Wilmington +6.1 149.2 74% 66–86 ✓
Campbell @ Northeastern +0.9 138.0 54% 58–67 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Elon +11.3 144.6 86% 60–59 ✗
Delaware @ Towson +6.6 139.5 78% 70–75 ✓
Drexel @ Hampton +0.4 136.6 52% 58–63 ✓
Hofstra @ William & Mary +2.0 142.2 62% 60–61 ✓
North Florida @ North Alabama +11.0 164.1 84% 70–83 ✓
West Georgia @ Eastern Kentucky +14.0 151.3 88% 73–95 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -6.5 140.9 25% 72–60 ✓
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas -9.1 139.8 18% 77–62 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech +4.1 142.8 71% 69–47 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston -2.8 144.6 37% 61–66 ✗
Marshall @ South Alabama +3.9 134.9 68% 82–91 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Austin Peay -2.7 141.3 39% 60–73 ✗
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -1.4 138.6 46% 59–75 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Tarleton State -11.1 135.2 16% 64–60 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota +2.0 150.4 61% 72–79 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +10.4 151.6 83% 85–98 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota +5.7 149.9 70% 68–64 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Little Rock +5.6 131.5 74% 75–79 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +19.1 147.2 91% 60–93 ✓
Maryland @ Nebraska -1.5 146.7 45% 83–75 ✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +3.6 138.8 65% 74–76 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois -0.7 135.9 42% 62–87 ✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +6.0 135.6 74% 76–71 ✗
Morehead State @ Lindenwood +0.7 131.1 52% 60–73 ✓
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -3.6 143.0 35% 66–49 ✓
Memphis @ South Florida -10.2 149.8 16% 80–65 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +4.4 145.9 74% 68–81 ✓
Weber State @ Montana State +7.8 139.4 79% 66–74 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Davis +0.3 134.9 50% 74–75 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +11.6 151.8 87% 88–94 ✓
Liberty @ New Mexico State -4.6 132.8 29% 64–54 ✓
Florida International @ UTEP +8.0 141.1 80% 63–77 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield -12.7 141.9 14% 73–54 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -9.6 145.3 17% 77–61 ✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton -4.0 152.2 34% 98–83 ✓
San Diego @ Pepperdine +8.2 148.4 79% 81–88 ✓
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +10.5 134.5 86% 83–58 ✗
Oregon State @ Portland -12.6 149.1 15% 72–84 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +9.8 142.0 83% 60–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +12.3 150.1 86% 77–88 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +9.6 139.3 84% 60–62 ✓
Columbia @ Dartmouth +2.1 154.2 60% 56–78 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara +0.1 137.1 50% 84–83 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.