The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–9 on winners spread MAE 8.1 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ South Carolina -5.3 137.2 28% 72–68 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate -8.9 156.9 18% 92–85 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +5.0 135.5 71% 72–73 ✓
Tulsa @ Temple +9.8 149.6 85% 80–74 ✗
Louisville @ NC State -7.2 139.1 25% 91–66 ✓
Florida State @ Wake Forest +4.0 137.5 69% 72–70 ✗
Stanford @ Georgia Tech +0.5 145.5 53% 52–60 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Rhode Island +1.5 137.7 57% 64–68 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +12.0 143.4 87% 63–75 ✓
Dayton @ Fordham -5.4 146.1 27% 93–76 ✓
Davidson @ Massachusetts +1.1 144.0 55% 77–68 ✗
VCU @ George Washington -5.2 137.3 32% 80–72 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +9.6 145.7 83% 64–78 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +0.5 145.4 54% 64–60 ✗
Lehigh @ Navy +0.2 139.1 56% 60–63 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell +4.8 138.3 70% 60–76 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State +2.0 138.2 63% 68–59 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +8.8 133.7 81% 54–80 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +6.2 149.1 76% 72–96 ✓
Wofford @ The Citadel -12.4 137.5 13% 74–71 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern +1.3 141.6 59% 70–71 ✓
UTSA @ Wichita State +4.8 146.4 71% 64–69 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford +5.3 153.7 70% 82–68 ✗
Evansville @ Missouri State +3.9 134.1 62% 54–71 ✓
Belmont @ Valparaiso -3.6 158.3 32% 86–101 ✗
Xavier @ Providence -0.5 144.2 47% 91–82 ✓
Washington @ Ohio State +12.1 146.5 86% 69–93 ✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +12.8 146.1 87% 67–101 ✓
Troy @ Louisiana -10.1 133.5 17% 74–56 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas Tech +11.7 141.9 87% 106–111 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -4.8 140.8 32% 97–94 ✓
Drake @ Illinois State -3.4 132.4 33% 84–77 ✓
California @ Duke +19.0 144.6 91% 57–78 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +7.5 144.8 78% 58–70 ✓
Oklahoma @ Missouri +6.7 149.4 75% 58–82 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +16.4 143.1 89% 67–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook -0.5 144.2 45% 79–69 ✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington -0.6 144.4 48% 79–82 ✗
NJIT @ Bryant +13.9 147.8 88% 66–88 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +2.6 146.4 63% 77–81 ✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +4.6 148.9 68% 90–88 ✗
Queens University @ Bellarmine -8.0 149.3 22% 92–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.