Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -10000 CAL +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +21 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -25.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -20.2 (+0.8) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -19.0 (+2.0) | 144.6 (-9.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -23.5 (-2.5) | 146.2 (-11.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -24.2 (-3.2) | 144.7 (-9.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | DUKE 71 – 56 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 6-14 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-6 |
| Away | 10-1 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 25.2 (#2) | 3.0 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#5) | 0.45 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.94 (#5) | 0.61 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.655 (#5) | 0.502 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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