Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +700 DUKE -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +15 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -12.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -10.2 (-4.8) | 146.3 (-19.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -9.6 (-5.4) | 143.8 (-16.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -9.4 (-5.6) | 143.9 (-16.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -9.2 (-5.8) | 145.3 (-18.3) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 57 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 35-3 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 17-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#75) | 24.1 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#57) | 4.60 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#69) | 6.89 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#74) | 0.671 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 58.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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