I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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56–17 on winners spread MAE 10.8 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Omaha @ James Madison +3.9 149.9 69% 77–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina Upstate +12.2 142.2 86% 67–82 ✓
Boston University @ Penn State +16.3 143.7 87% 87–96 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Florida State +28.6 153.7 90% 59–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Villanova +20.8 142.3 88% 75–89 ✓
Wright State @ Stetson -0.7 143.7 39% 79–62 ✓
Rice @ Florida Gulf Coast +9.3 153.5 79% 63–78 ✓
Houston Christian @ Bellarmine +3.0 136.6 55% 69–74 ✓
Hampton @ Maryland Eastern Shore +2.7 128.3 49% 74–68 ✗
Chicago State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +6.7 145.7 66% 77–90 ✓
Quinnipiac @ UCF +14.5 152.3 85% 91–102 ✓
Campbell @ Wake Forest +14.2 153.2 87% 51–99 ✓
Lehigh @ Marist +10.4 127.8 81% 55–78 ✓
Coppin State @ Rider +6.7 137.3 74% 68–65 ✗
George Mason @ Florida Atlantic -2.1 144.3 40% 74–65 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Central Arkansas +1.7 136.3 55% 60–81 ✓
Murray State @ George Washington +7.8 162.1 81% 96–95 ✗
Temple @ Princeton -3.5 145.5 33% 79–75 ✓
Kansas State @ Indiana +8.1 156.6 73% 69–86 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas A&M +28.9 153.4 91% 84–120 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Cal Poly +4.8 151.2 74% 84–68 ✗
South Carolina State @ Missouri +31.1 150.6 91% 66–98 ✓
Eastern Washington @ North Texas +7.6 135.5 68% 71–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Austin Peay +13.0 139.0 83% 59–77 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State +6.3 149.4 74% 94–100 ✓
Auburn @ Michigan +4.7 154.3 69% 72–102 ✓
Winthrop @ Nebraska +10.7 154.4 79% 73–80 ✓
New Mexico State @ UC Irvine -0.7 137.7 52% 57–45 ✓
UTSA @ Georgia Southern +3.5 144.4 66% 77–64 ✗
Oakland @ Montana +5.1 159.6 73% 95–87 ✗
Portland State @ Utah Tech +1.7 150.1 57% 68–63 ✗
Maryland @ Gonzaga +19.7 147.3 90% 61–100 ✓
Ole Miss @ Iowa +5.5 144.7 71% 69–74 ✓
UCLA @ California -0.2 137.3 38% 72–80 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon -0.2 141.6 57% 97–80 ✓
UNLV @ Alabama +12.6 168.9 83% 76–115 ✓
Utah @ Grand Canyon +2.3 152.2 65% 58–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Troy +20.4 155.5 90% 64–74 ✓
Bowling Green @ VMI -9.5 147.3 17% 81–48 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Western Kentucky -5.8 160.2 26% 83–78 ✓
Towson @ UC San Diego +1.5 130.9 55% 73–87 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill +10.4 144.0 80% 75–64 ✗
Syracuse @ Iowa State +5.7 142.6 76% 64–95 ✓
New Orleans @ Texas Tech +10.3 150.6 82% 50–82 ✓
Brown @ New Hampshire +2.4 134.9 39% 59–47 ✗
Belmont @ Toledo -2.2 145.7 39% 87–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Bucknell -7.7 140.9 23% 73–71 ✓
San José State @ Loyola Chicago -4.6 134.6 33% 63–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ UNC Greensboro -8.2 152.2 22% 82–71 ✓
Omaha @ Florida International +4.0 151.5 69% 61–74 ✓
App State @ Mercer +12.0 140.5 84% 67–75 ✓
UIC @ Robert Morris +4.6 145.6 71% 74–88 ✓
Wofford @ Northern Kentucky +6.6 145.3 76% 83–93 ✓
Army @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.3 149.3 61% 81–73 ✗
USC @ Arizona State -4.4 157.2 35% 88–75 ✓
Liberty @ Bradley -4.0 146.0 30% 64–74 ✗
South Florida @ VCU -0.1 162.3 53% 66–78 ✗
North Dakota State @ Jacksonville State -3.6 135.8 35% 56–43 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Valparaiso +11.6 144.2 77% 64–56 ✗
Georgia State @ New Mexico State +13.7 134.9 86% 58–77 ✓
Notre Dame @ Houston +5.4 134.6 68% 56–66 ✓
Lipscomb @ Marshall +13.7 148.5 84% 90–67 ✗
Navy @ Gardner-Webb -11.0 147.5 16% 84–51 ✓
Harvard @ Boston College +5.0 131.7 66% 60–73 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Tulsa +3.6 132.0 66% 60–63 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Rice -1.7 148.2 43% 62–81 ✗
Vermont @ Princeton -4.9 148.1 33% 79–74 ✓
Wagner @ Manhattan -0.7 152.6 45% 103–101 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Colorado State -1.2 155.6 44% 66–64 ✓
Seton Hall @ Washington State -7.2 140.1 21% 75–61 ✓
Samford @ Utah Valley +5.0 147.7 73% 45–89 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force -0.3 146.5 50% 71–53 ✓
Sam Houston @ Idaho State +1.4 136.8 55% 84–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.