Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | MER -285 APP +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MER -15.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -8.8 (-0.8) | 141.4 (+0.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -9.8 (-1.8) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -12.0 (-4.0) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -10.6 (-2.6) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#159) | -8.9 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#154) | -0.65 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#183) | -1.49 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#167) | 0.431 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.