Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -105 SJSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +12 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | SJSU -7.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -5.3 (-6.7) | 135.0 (-21.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -3.8 (-8.2) | 132.3 (-18.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -5.0 (-7.0) | 134.3 (-20.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -5.7 (-6.3) | 136.1 (-22.1) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2025 | LUC 73 – 70 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 6-10 | 6-10 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#332) | -4.4 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#346) | -1.10 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.97 (#350) | -1.74 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#324) | 0.442 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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