Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | GW -325 MUR +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +1 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -9.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -8.2 (-9.2) | 167.5 (+23.5) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -8.9 (-9.9) | 164.4 (+26.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -7.8 (-8.8) | 162.1 (+28.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -10.0 (-11.0) | 164.8 (+26.2) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#25) | 4.9 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#45) | -0.08 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#49) | -0.08 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#70) | 0.440 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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