Western Kentucky
Hilltoppers
78
–
83
FINAL
Neutral
Marriott Bonvoy Battle 4 Atlantis
Vanderbilt
Commodores
Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | WKU +1300 VAN -2800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +5 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -11.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -6.6 (+1.6) | 164.1 (-3.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -6.0 (+1.0) | 162.1 (-1.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -5.8 (+0.8) | 160.2 (+0.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -5.7 (+0.7) | 166.4 (-5.4) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#104) | 16.3 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#63) | 3.66 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#74) | 6.14 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#140) | 0.540 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 53.0% |
| 3PT% | 18.4% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 41.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 2.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 62.5% |
| TOV% | 10.1% | 10.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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