Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -380 LIP +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +23 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -14.5 (-37.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -8.3 (-31.3) | 150.5 (+6.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -12.3 (-35.3) | 147.3 (+9.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -13.7 (-36.7) | 148.5 (+8.5) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -13.2 (-36.2) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#96) | -3.3 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#19) | -0.98 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#29) | -1.27 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#25) | 0.419 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 58.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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