Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -1100 EWU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -8.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -12.2 (-4.2) | 133.3 (+16.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.3 (+0.7) | 135.1 (+14.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.6 (+0.4) | 135.5 (+14.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -10.0 (-2.0) | 133.7 (+16.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#208) | -4.3 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#254) | -2.41 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#266) | -4.48 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#227) | 0.443 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 60.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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