Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -10000 CSUB +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +30 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -28.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -23.2 (+6.8) | 155.8 (-7.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -23.3 (+6.7) | 152.0 (-4.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -28.6 (+1.4) | 153.7 (-5.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -27.4 (+2.6) | 154.7 (-6.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 83.4 |
| Massey | 16.1 (#18) | -6.8 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#72) | -1.22 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#64) | -2.06 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#82) | 0.390 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 37.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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