Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | IU -550 KSU +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | IU -8.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -7.6 (+9.4) | 155.1 (-0.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -8.2 (+8.8) | 156.7 (-1.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -8.1 (+8.9) | 156.6 (-1.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -9.2 (+7.8) | 155.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#31) | 10.7 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#40) | 2.42 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#42) | 3.93 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#11) | 0.654 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 52.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 43.3% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.36 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 12.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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