Betting Lines
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1100 QUIN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +11 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -13.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -13.1 (-2.1) | 151.2 (+41.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.2 (-1.2) | 151.3 (+41.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -14.5 (-3.5) | 152.3 (+40.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -13.6 (-2.6) | 153.2 (+39.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#86) | -0.8 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#61) | 1.07 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#54) | 1.41 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#84) | 0.583 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 45.6% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 40.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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