Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MRST -360 LEH +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +23 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -13.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -9.7 (+13.3) | 126.5 (+6.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -8.6 (+14.4) | 124.4 (+8.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -10.0 (+13.0) | 128.3 (+4.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -10.4 (+12.6) | 127.8 (+5.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | LEH 74 – 69 MRST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | LEH 65 – 58 MRST |
| Nov 17, 2022 | LEH 64 – 54 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#181) | -8.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#315) | -1.85 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#324) | -2.77 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#341) | 0.431 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 28.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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