Betting Lines
| Spread | LEH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LEH -150 MRST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | LEH -8.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEH -3.9 (+6.1) | 143.3 (-25.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LEH -5.0 (+5.0) | 141.0 (-23.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LEH -4.5 (+5.5) | 144.4 (-26.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | MRST 78 – 55 LEH |
| Dec 1, 2024 | LEH 74 – 69 MRST |
| Dec 30, 2023 | LEH 65 – 58 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#306) | -6.9 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#319) | -1.50 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#323) | -2.14 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#314) | 0.231 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 8.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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