Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -180 WOF +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +10 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -9.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -5.3 (+4.7) | 145.3 (+30.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | NKU -4.2 (+5.8) | 144.1 (+31.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | NKU -6.9 (+3.1) | 143.4 (+32.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -6.6 (+3.4) | 145.3 (+30.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#170) | -3.3 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#127) | 1.18 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#141) | 1.75 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#115) | 0.542 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | WOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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