Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -1050 CHST +675 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +13 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -8.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -10.0 (+3.0) | 143.7 (+23.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -5.9 (+7.1) | 143.2 (+23.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -6.7 (+6.3) | 145.7 (+21.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -7.8 (+5.2) | 145.4 (+21.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-11 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#296) | -10.1 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#324) | -3.08 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#326) | -4.64 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#256) | 0.451 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 27.4 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 63.1% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 38.9% |
Game Analysis
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