Betting Lines
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -135 OMA +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -5.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -6.4 (+4.6) | 142.4 (+22.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -5.2 (+5.8) | 147.4 (+17.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -3.9 (+7.1) | 149.9 (+15.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -4.9 (+6.1) | 150.3 (+14.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#207) | -6.7 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#140) | -1.87 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#135) | -2.69 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#228) | 0.384 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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