Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -800 ND +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +10 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -7.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -8.3 (+1.7) | 130.8 (-8.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -6.5 (+3.5) | 132.5 (-10.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -5.4 (+4.6) | 134.6 (-12.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.2 (+3.8) | 132.7 (-10.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2024 | HOU 65 – 54 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#24) | 6.8 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#26) | 1.02 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.99 (#25) | 1.53 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#27) | 0.554 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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