Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ND +1000 HOU -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +11 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -14.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.1 (+0.1) | 136.9 (-17.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -7.5 (-3.5) | 138.6 (-19.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.8 (-4.2) | 139.8 (-20.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -9.9 (-1.1) | 138.8 (-19.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | HOU 66 – 56 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 19-1 |
| Home | 11-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#84) | 21.0 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#118) | 1.18 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#81) | 2.46 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#95) | 0.545 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 45.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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