Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -218 AUB +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +30 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -8.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -5.5 (+24.5) | 159.6 (+14.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -6.4 (+23.6) | 157.3 (+16.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -4.7 (+25.3) | 154.3 (+19.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -4.2 (+25.8) | 156.8 (+17.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 29, 2025 | AUB 78 – 65 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 11-0 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#3) | 12.7 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#24) | 1.80 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#31) | 3.18 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#13) | 0.595 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 46.2 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 42.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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