Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | UMES +205 HAMP -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +6 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -0.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -2.2 (-3.8) | 132.3 (+9.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.4 (-7.4) | 129.5 (+12.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -2.7 (-8.7) | 128.3 (+13.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.5 (-6.5) | 128.3 (+13.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 2-18 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#324) | -4.2 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#163) | -2.05 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | -2.98 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#157) | 0.326 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 27.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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