Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -9000 ODU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -20.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -22.4 (-8.4) | 142.5 (+21.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -18.3 (-4.3) | 141.8 (+22.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -20.8 (-6.8) | 142.3 (+21.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -22.4 (-8.4) | 141.4 (+22.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#49) | -3.0 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#113) | -1.09 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#108) | -1.50 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#75) | 0.441 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 47.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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