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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–13 on winners spread MAE 10.8 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Eastern Michigan @ Louisville +22.5 151.3 89% 46–87 ✓
James Madison @ Florida International +5.3 152.4 67% 80–72 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Northern Kentucky +13.3 147.7 85% 71–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ The Citadel +3.1 161.1 56% 70–58 ✗
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +6.5 147.4 71% 67–80 ✓
NJIT @ Cincinnati +16.9 134.6 87% 67–94 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Central Connecticut +11.5 133.5 85% 106–108 ✓
Princeton @ Bradley +1.2 136.7 60% 64–88 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.4 154.6 83% 88–93 ✓
New Orleans @ Mississippi State +3.3 152.3 63% 78–81 ✓
Murray State @ McNeese +5.7 160.4 63% 60–73 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Illinois +24.9 155.2 90% 73–87 ✓
Auburn @ Oregon -3.7 144.7 26% 84–73 ✓
Yale @ Akron +1.8 154.3 55% 97–94 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Arkansas State +6.1 147.0 67% 63–74 ✓
Cal Poly @ Northern Arizona -2.7 144.6 35% 87–93 ✗
Radford @ SMU +29.0 153.2 91% 72–89 ✓
Long Island University @ Missouri State +4.5 141.7 68% 75–61 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Loyola Marymount +0.7 143.0 53% 76–65 ✗
UTSA @ Abilene Christian -0.1 136.4 56% 50–61 ✗
Louisiana @ UC Davis +12.2 133.4 82% 56–77 ✓
Gonzaga @ Alabama -2.9 153.8 40% 95–85 ✓
Denver @ Arizona +20.0 151.3 88% 73–103 ✓
San Diego State @ Michigan +9.4 152.3 78% 54–94 ✓
Arizona State @ Texas +5.3 137.9 75% 87–86 ✗
UNLV @ Maryland +2.4 160.7 58% 67–74 ✓
Stony Brook @ Bethune-Cookman +1.8 149.6 57% 61–54 ✗
Towson @ Liberty +5.4 130.0 73% 72–69 ✗
Michigan State @ East Carolina -11.9 141.2 15% 89–56 ✓
Rutgers @ Notre Dame +7.4 140.2 79% 63–68 ✓
Pacific @ Jacksonville -1.9 131.6 41% 68–53 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Delaware +1.2 144.4 56% 60–73 ✓
Tulsa @ San José State -6.5 146.5 25% 81–51 ✓
Creighton @ Iowa State +9.5 150.1 78% 60–78 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Army -3.2 140.4 30% 84–67 ✓
NC State @ Boise State -1.8 146.6 30% 81–70 ✓
Rhode Island @ Vermont -0.4 150.0 43% 80–65 ✓
Samford @ Georgia State -6.8 140.5 25% 78–63 ✓
Syracuse @ Kansas +2.4 135.4 59% 60–71 ✓
UTEP @ UAB +8.9 134.8 82% 59–75 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago -12.9 130.3 15% 72–51 ✓
St. John's @ Baylor -3.6 157.2 32% 96–81 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Oral Roberts -4.2 155.6 35% 83–91 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Ohio -7.4 141.5 20% 70–58 ✓
UC San Diego @ Bradley -3.8 140.4 43% 87–77 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ McNeese +7.3 149.6 72% 62–72 ✓
Seton Hall @ USC +0.6 142.1 50% 81–83 ✓
Tennessee @ Houston -0.6 129.2 38% 76–73 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ North Carolina +7.3 144.7 72% 70–85 ✓
Utah Valley @ South Dakota State +8.5 149.5 79% 75–52 ✗
Drexel @ Morgan State -0.0 143.3 39% 71–66 ✓
Tennessee State @ UNC Asheville +4.3 148.8 68% 75–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Abilene Christian -4.7 138.2 31% 92–58 ✓
San Diego @ California Baptist +8.8 136.7 77% 61–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Ohio State +22.4 143.9 89% 60–113 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.