Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +230 DREX -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -0.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -2.6 (-2.4) | 140.3 (-3.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -0.5 (-4.5) | 141.1 (-4.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -0.0 (-5.0) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -0.4 (-4.6) | 145.4 (-8.4) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -11.7 (#337) | -5.5 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.02 (#346) | -1.14 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.07 (#337) | -1.33 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.324 (#352) | 0.382 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.9% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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