Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Under |
| Money | ACU -100000 UTSA +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +11 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | UTSA -0.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -0.1 (+11.1) | 133.4 (-22.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.6 (+10.4) | 136.9 (-25.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -0.1 (+11.1) | 136.4 (-25.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -0.9 (+11.9) | 136.6 (-25.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-5 | 2-12 |
| Away | 3-12 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 82.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#261) | -5.4 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#231) | 0.06 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#266) | -0.64 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#243) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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