Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +130 PAC -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +15 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -4.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -0.6 (-15.6) | 131.3 (-10.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -1.7 (-13.3) | 132.1 (-11.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -1.9 (-13.1) | 131.6 (-10.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -2.3 (-12.7) | 133.3 (-12.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#175) | 4.1 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#106) | 0.97 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#122) | 2.23 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#81) | 0.532 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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